Model aircraft statistics are easiest to interpret when registration records, aircraft estimates, administrative status changes and safety occurrences are kept separate. The figures below focus mainly on recreational/model small unmanned aircraft in the United States, with a short United Kingdom occurrence review; they are broader than a census of traditional fixed-wing aeromodellers.
Key Model Aircraft Statistics
The most useful headline figures are:
- In the United States and territories, more than 1.54 million cumulative new recreational/model owner registrations had been recorded by December 2023.
- During January–December 2023, about 6,053 new recreational/model owner registrations per month were recorded in the United States and territories.
- During January–December 2022, about 7,866 new recreational/model owner registrations per month were recorded in the United States and territories.
- During January–December 2021, about 10,200 new recreational/model owner registrations per month were recorded in the United States and territories.
- In December 2023, approximately 1.76 million recreationally identified small unmanned aircraft were estimated in the United States and territories.
- In December 2023, about 557,300 aircraft made up the FAA’s estimated effective or active recreational fleet in the United States and territories.
- In 2023, 21,379 cumulative recreational/model cancellations per month were recorded on average in the United States and territories.
- In 2023, about 508 new recreational/model cancellations per month were recorded on average in the United States and territories.
- In 2023, more than 1 million cumulative recreational/model registrations expired per month in the United States and territories.
- In 2023, more than 10,625 new recreational/model expirations per month were recorded on average in the United States and territories.
- In 2023, 142,000 cumulative renewals before expiry were recorded in the United States and territories.
- In 2023, 5,059 new renewals before expiry per month were recorded on average in the United States and territories.
- The FAA’s 2023 base/high estimate placed the recreational/model aircraft fleet at 1.7768 million aircraft in the United States and territories.
- The FAA’s 2023 low/effective estimate placed the recreational/model fleet at 0.5573 million active/effective aircraft in the United States and territories.
- The FAA’s base forecast placed the recreational/model fleet at 1.8830 million aircraft in 2028 in the United States and territories.
- The FAA’s low forecast placed the active/effective fleet at 0.6288 million aircraft in 2028 in the United States and territories.
- The FAA’s base outlook implied 1.2% cumulative annual growth from 2023 to 2028 for the recreational/model fleet in the United States and territories.
- The AAIB reviewed 9 record-only UAS occurrences in its United Kingdom table covering 21 April–31 July 2022.
- Three of those 9 records involved model aircraft in the United Kingdom review window from 14 June–31 July 2022.
Contents
- Key Model Aircraft Statistics
- Model Aircraft Registration Statistics and Participation Trends
- Model Aircraft Fleet Size, Ownership and Active Aircraft
- Model Aircraft Renewals, Expirations and Cancellations
- Model Aircraft Fleet Forecasts Through 2028
- Model Aircraft Safety Occurrences and Operational Patterns
Model Aircraft Registration Statistics and Participation Trends
The FAA’s registration series is an administrative measure of owners, not a direct count of aircraft, sales or active flyers. Its scope covers recreational/model small drones above 0.55 pounds (250 grams) and below 55 pounds (25 kilograms), so the threshold does not represent the whole model-aircraft hobby.
The online registration system began on December 21, 2015. By the end of December 2023, the FAA had recorded more than 1.54 million cumulative new recreational/model owner registrations in the United States and territories. FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2024–2044: UAS and AAM Compendium
| Period | Average new owner registrations | Geography and definition |
|---|---|---|
| January–December 2021 | 10,200 per month | U.S. and territories; recreational/model owners |
| January–December 2022 | 7,866 per month | U.S. and territories; recreational/model owners |
| January–December 2023 | 6,053 per month | U.S. and territories; recreational/model owners |
The FAA reported that the 2023 average was 1,813 registrations per month lower than in 2022, while the 2022 average was 2,334 lower than in 2021. These are differences reported from rounded monthly averages, not independently calculated sales declines. FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2024–2044: UAS and AAM Compendium
The report described the recreational/model registration trend observed in 2023 as declining and expected that direction to continue over the next five years. That is a forecast expectation rather than a realized future result, and registration activity should not be treated as a participation rate.
Model Aircraft Fleet Size, Ownership and Active Aircraft
Fleet estimates answer a different question from registrations. The FAA estimated approximately 1.76 million recreationally identified small unmanned aircraft in the fleet in December 2023, about 15% higher than cumulative new registrations and almost 14% higher than ownership registration.
The report attributes the gap to assumptions about retirement, redundancy and loss, and the ownership and registration concepts are not interchangeable. The same December 2023 estimate included an effective or active fleet of about 557,300 aircraft, a lower-bound-style measure derived from net registration changes. FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2024–2044: UAS and AAM Compendium
| FAA 2023 fleet measure | Estimate | Meaning and period |
|---|---|---|
| Base/high fleet measure | 1.7768 million aircraft | Ownership multiplicity measure; calendar year 2023 |
| Low/effective fleet measure | 0.5573 million aircraft | Active/effective measure; calendar year 2023 |
| December identified fleet | Approximately 1.76 million aircraft | Recreationally identified fleet; December 2023 |
Ownership concentration can make owner counts especially difficult to translate into aircraft counts. An AMA comment cited in the FAA rulemaking record said members owned at least 9 model aircraft on average, while the same record noted that many AMA members owned 100 to 200 aircraft.
A separate commenter cited an average of 15 UAS owned from a survey of First-Person View Freedom Coalition members. These AMA and FPV figures are commenter-submitted or secondary survey estimates, not representative probability samples of all model-aircraft owners. FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2024–2044: UAS and AAM Compendium
The FAA’s 2023 forecast discussion also said average recreational equipment prices were $750 or less. That price context covers recreational small drones broadly and does not describe every fixed-wing model aircraft or the total cost of participation.
Model Aircraft Renewals, Expirations and Cancellations
Administrative status changes show how the registration database moves, but they do not directly measure physical aircraft leaving service. In particular, expiry does not prove that an aircraft stopped flying, and cancellation is not equivalent to aircraft disposal.
The FAA reported these 2023 cancellation measures for the United States and territories:
- Cumulative recreational/model cancellations averaged 21,379 per month during January–December 2023.
- New recreational/model cancellations averaged about 508 per month during January–December 2023.
- During 2021–2022, cumulative cancellations averaged 16,403 per month.
- During 2021–2022, new cancellations averaged 188 per month.
The report described 2023 new monthly cancellations as more than 500, compared with 188 in 2021–2022. The comparison uses rounded values from the FAA narrative and should not be read as a disposal rate. FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2024–2044: UAS and AAM Compendium
Expiration activity was also substantial in the administrative record:
- Recreational/model registrations expired at a cumulative rate of over 1 million per month during January–December 2023.
- New recreational/model expirations averaged more than 10,625 per month during January–December 2023.
- New recreational/model expirations averaged 8,336 per month during 2021–2022.
Renewal categories provide another view of retention. Cumulative renewals before expiry reached 142,000 in 2023, and new average monthly renewals before expiry were 5,059.
The FAA described this 2023 pre-expiry renewal level as more than four times the 2022 level, when new average monthly renewals were 1,170. FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2024–2044: UAS and AAM Compendium
After expiry, cumulative Renew+ registrations averaged 53,638 per month in 2023, while new average monthly Renew+ registrations were approximately 988. Across 2021–2023, cumulative Renew+ averaged 41,798 per month and new Renew+ averaged 1,240 per month; Renew+ is an administrative re-registration category, not a new aircraft or participation count.
Model Aircraft Fleet Forecasts Through 2028
The FAA separates a low active/effective scenario from base and high ownership-based scenarios. Because the definitions differ, the low series should not be treated as directly comparable to the base or high series simply because all are expressed in millions of aircraft.
| Year | Low forecast, million active/effective | Base forecast, million aircraft | High forecast, million aircraft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.5557 | 1.8264 | 1.8308 |
| 2025 | 0.5832 | 1.8470 | 1.8674 |
| 2026 | 0.6092 | 1.8673 | 1.8913 |
| 2027 | 0.6213 | 1.8787 | 1.9075 |
| 2028 | 0.6288 | 1.8830 | 1.9208 |
The low forecast places the active/effective fleet at 0.5557 million aircraft in 2024 and 0.6288 million in 2028. The base forecast rises from 1.8264 million in 2024 to 1.8830 million in 2028, while the high forecast rises from 1.8308 million to 1.9208 million over the same period. FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2024–2044: UAS and AAM Compendium
For 2023–2028, the FAA’s base outlook implies 1.2% cumulative annual growth in the recreational/model fleet. Its low outlook implies 2.4% cumulative annual growth in the active/effective fleet; both figures are scenario-specific forecasts, not observed outcomes.
Model Aircraft Safety Occurrences and Operational Patterns
The available safety evidence is narrower than the U.S. registration and fleet data. The UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch reviewed 9 record-only UAS occurrences in a table covering 21 April–31 July 2022, and three listed records involved aircraft identified as model aircraft during 14 June–31 July 2022.
Those three model-aircraft records represented one-third of the 9 occurrences in that table. They occurred on 14 June, 29 July and 30 July 2022, spanning 46 calendar days, but the count is not an incidence rate because the review provides no flight-hour or fleet denominator. AAIB Record-only UAS investigations reviewed: June – July 2022
The AAIB table also includes a Red-5 GPS Hawk model-aircraft record dated 31 July 2022 at Tudeley, Kent, UK. In that occurrence, the control link was lost and the aircraft descended into a field; including this record, the page contains four MA-labelled entries, so the table’s model-aircraft count depends on the precise record set being discussed.
This short UK record-only review should therefore be read as an example of reported operational occurrences, not as a national model-aircraft accident rate. It also should not be combined arithmetically with the FAA’s U.S. registration or fleet estimates, which cover different populations, geographies and measurement systems.